Two independents from the hill towns are, once again, the votes everyone is courting.

As the Assembly sat late into Wednesday evening, the arithmetic that has dominated Calder politics for the past fortnight remained unchanged: 61 seats, no party with more than 24, and two independent members from the hill towns whose votes could decide who governs the region for the next four years. This page summarises the day’s developments and will be updated as talks continue.

Where the numbers stand

After last month’s election, the Civic Alliance holds 24 seats, the Commonweal group 21, the Greens 8 and the Valley Liberals 6. The two remaining seats are held by Margery Thwaite, member for Harrow Moor, and Ewan Castellane, member for the upper valley seats around Ardle. A working majority requires 31 votes.

Neither of the two largest parties can reach that figure without either a formal coalition with a smaller group or the support of both independents. The Civic Alliance and the Valley Liberals together would have 30. Commonweal and the Greens together would have 29. In either case, the independents become the decisive votes – just as they were, in slightly different form, after the election four years ago.

Wednesday: what happened

At 10am, Civic Alliance negotiators met the Valley Liberals for the third time in a week at a hotel near the old town. Both parties said afterwards that “good progress” had been made, but sources close to the talks said disagreements remained over the regional transport budget and the future of the harbour development company.

Shortly after 1pm, Thwaite and Castellane issued a joint statement setting out what they described as “the hill-town list”: seven commitments they would require from any administration in exchange for their support. These include restoring evening bus services on the routes to Harrow Moor and Ardle, reopening the weekend minor injuries unit, and a ten-year guarantee on funding for village schools with fewer than 60 pupils.

In a short interview outside the Assembly building, Thwaite said the pair would not join any coalition formally and would vote on a case-by-case basis on legislation beyond the budget and confidence motions.

“We have been here before. Four years ago we were promised the moon and given a feasibility study. This time we want it written down and costed before we lift a finger. We are not for sale, but we are very definitely open for business.”

By mid-afternoon, Commonweal’s group leader, Samuel Okafor-Reid, had told reporters that his party could “accept most” of the hill-town list, and that talks with the Greens on a joint programme were “well advanced”. The Greens said they would hold a members’ ballot on any deal, which could add up to ten days to the process.

What it means and what comes next

Under the Assembly’s standing orders, a First Minister must be elected within 28 days of the first sitting, or a fresh election is triggered. That deadline falls at the end of next week. Officials said on Wednesday that a vote could be scheduled as early as Tuesday if any party could demonstrate that it had the numbers.

Political analysts say the independents’ leverage is real but finite. Professor Hannelore Wex, who teaches politics at the University of Calder, pointed out that a Civic Alliance–Valley Liberal deal would need only one of the two independents to abstain, rather than vote in favour, to survive a confidence motion. “The power of a pair depends on them staying a pair,” she said. “Both main parties will be looking for a way to split them.”

There is also the question of cost. The regional finance office estimated in the spring that the evening bus services alone would cost around £1.8 million a year, and the minor injuries unit a further £900,000. Both larger parties have said they can find the money, though neither has said where from. On the hill-town streets, opinion is divided between pride and fatigue. Some residents relish the attention; others say they have heard promises before. The independents are due to meet Commonweal negotiators on Thursday morning and Civic Alliance negotiators in the afternoon. We will update this summary as those meetings conclude.