Low snowfall forecasts have water boards planning months ahead.
In the high valley town of Kesh Varan, the reservoir behind the old stone dam is lower in November than anyone on the municipal water board can remember. A line of pale rock, normally hidden until late summer, runs around the shoreline like a tide mark. Children cycle along a path that was underwater in spring.
Seasonal forecasts issued last month by the regional meteorological service suggest the coming winter will bring between 30 and 45 per cent less snow than the long-term average to the mountain districts above the Tessan plateau. For towns that depend on the slow melt of the snowpack to fill their reservoirs between March and June, that is not a weather story but a supply problem that will last well into next summer.
Water boards in at least eleven mountain municipalities have begun drawing up contingency plans, some for the first time. Their measures range from repairing leaking mains to negotiating emergency transfers from lowland rivers and, in the worst case, scheduled cuts to household supply.
Counting every litre
In Kesh Varan, a town of about 18,000 people, the board’s first step has been to find out how much water it is losing before it reaches anyone’s tap. Engineers using acoustic sensors spent the autumn walking the town’s 140 kilometres of pipes, listening for leaks. They found more than 300.
“We were losing almost a third of what we treated,” said Dorota Velikan, chief engineer of the Kesh Varan water board. “In a wet year you can live with that. In a dry year, fixing the pipes is the cheapest new reservoir we will ever build.”
Repair crews are working seven days a week to fix the largest leaks before the ground freezes in December. The board estimates that the work, if completed, could save about 1.2 million cubic metres of water over the winter – roughly six weeks of the town’s normal consumption. Further down the valley in Orsk Tamar, the municipality has taken a different approach, asking its two biggest industrial users – a dairy cooperative and a small textile dye works – to agree voluntary reductions now in exchange for guaranteed supply later. Both have signed. The dye works will shut one of its three lines from January to April and bring forward its annual maintenance to fill the gap.
Farmers and ski slopes
The mountain economy depends on snow in two ways. Farmers rely on spring meltwater to irrigate fodder crops on the terraces, and the ski resorts above the towns provide much of the winter employment. Both face a hard season. Several resorts have said they will not run snow-making machines this year, after water boards made clear that drawing on reservoirs for artificial snow would not be permitted while household supply was at risk. Resort operators on the Pell ridge warned that without artificial snow the season could start a month late and finish a month early. Around 2,400 seasonal jobs are tied to the slopes across the district.
Farmers on the terraces above Orsk Tamar are being encouraged to switch part of their acreage to drought-tolerant fodder varieties next spring, with seed subsidised by the provincial agriculture office. Old irrigation channels, some of them centuries old and long abandoned, are being cleared so that whatever meltwater does arrive can be spread more evenly. Halim Torvane, who keeps around 200 goats on the slopes above Kesh Varan, said he had already sold a fifth of his herd rather than risk being unable to feed them through a dry spring. “My grandfather talked about a winter like this when he was young,” he said. “Now the forecasters tell us it may come every few years.”
Planning for the next one
Climate scientists at the provincial university say the region’s snowline has risen by around 150 metres over the past four decades, and that winters with very low snowfall are becoming more frequent. That has turned this year’s emergency planning into a rehearsal for something more permanent. The provincial government is expected to announce funding for a network of small storage ponds on the upper slopes, designed to capture meltwater early in the season. Water boards have also asked for powers to set seasonal tariffs, charging more for heavy use in dry years.
For now, the people of Kesh Varan are being asked to do simple things: report leaks, run washing machines only when full, and keep an eye on the reservoir. The water board has painted a series of coloured marks on the dam wall so that residents can see for themselves how much is left. On a clear afternoon this week, a small crowd gathered on the dam to look. The water stood just below the yellow line.
